Is India Ready to Sit at the Big Boys' Table?

Many Indians and NRIs around the world like to talk about India and how great it is. There is much discussion of how rapidly the nation is developing, how Indian figures are rising to prominence in business, science, or entertainment, how it's one of the few nuclear powers on the global stage. In fact, many proud folks truly believe that India is Mahaan - great, even the greatest place on the planet. I've seen this sentiment stated time and again in endless email forwards.

In many ways, India is indeed ascendant. It has also been by far the world's largest democracy for years running. However India is not, politically speaking, a great power. Nor has it ever been one throughout history, except in the days of yore with myth and legend such as in the Mahabharat, pictured above, which described an epic war in Kurukshetra where practically every country in the world fought on one side or the other because the feuding armies were so critical to the global power structure.

Earning great power status requires punching your weight, with acts worthy of this exalted label. With a population of 1.3 billion, India must fight in a higher weight class than it's now in. The best way to start this process is to prepare a serious bid for that most exclusive of clubs in the international system: the United Nations Security Council. The Big Boys' Table at this time has only 5 permanent seats, for the US, UK, China, Russia, and France. Until then, India clearly will not have arrived.

A path now seems to be opening up. Last week we heard reports that the Obama administration would support India's permanent entry into the UNSC, in return for India's cooperation with Pakistan to fully resolve the festering Kashmir issue once and for all. This followed close on the heels of India announcing a major policy shift toward Kashmir, with an emphasis on redressing citizens' concerns, releasing jailed youth, and injecting money to improve the economy. Simultaneously, Pakistan has made strong overtures toward having talks with India for a peaceful resolution in Kashmir, including at the UN General Assembly.

US and Indian officials are playing coy now, a requisite charade in order to plausibly deny international speculation about a potential quid pro quo agreement. But all this rapid flurry of activity is no coincidence. President Obama is visiting India in November, and it would be surprising if the Security Council question is not near the top of the agenda.

The deal is an excellent proposition for several reasons. India has coveted the Security Council seat, and the status that comes with it, for a decade now. It would help India provide a counterbalance to other powers in the neighborhood, most of all China, the leader of emerging Asia. It is also appropriate that India resolve the Kashmir dispute as a prerequisite; India won't ever be considered a great power if it hasn't resolved a petty disputed territory question after 60 years of trying including several bloody wars and decades of struggle against insurgency. India's national security also cannot be held hostage in perpetuity by a far smaller and poorer neighbor (Pakistan)while aspiring to call itself a great country. Although it is just one of several territorial disputes India faces, Kashmir is the largest and most volatile. Complete with human rights abuses, senseless violence, and massive hindrances to commerce and development, Kashmir's security situation is a festering embarrassment India's government cannot afford to sustain.

The United States of course has an interest in seeing a Kashmir resolution. Now more than ever, it is clear that Obama's exit strategy in Afghanistan relies heavily on Pakistan's cooperation in bringing the war to a close next year. If Pakistan's government and security forces are continuously distracted by Kashmir, and by extension India, it will come at the expense of the Afghanistan adventure. Without a disputed Kashmir, it is far less likely that India and Pakistan would ever fight a war again for the foreseeable future; cross-border terrorist incidents would likely fall off completely as well. Troops could be pulled off the Line of Control (LoC) and deployed elsewhere. Additionally, as the Kashmiri militancy dies off in a peaceful environment, Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and their networks will lose many allies and a global recruitment tool. Even Osama Bin Laden himself quoted abuses in Kashmir as a justification for the 9/11 attacks.

The solution should not be that hard to achieve. Agree to draw a hard line along the LoC, giving one side to Pakistan and the other to India; it's practically a de facto border anyway, with the armies of both nations straddling either side. Follow up by allowing the region's citizens to decide for themselves which side they would like to settle in, and keep the border porous for social and economic reasons.

Becoming a great power of course means much more than just resolving a petty territorial dispute and sitting at a table. It requires becoming a more responsible part of the global conversations about the economy, keeping the peace, alleviating poverty, sharing outer space, and protecting the environment. India is inching closer to being ready for this, and the United States as the world's only superpower still has the ability to become India's patron to help make it happen.

2010 is potentially shaping up to be a watershed year in South Asian affairs. An opportunity is presenting for India to help seal a lasting regional peace while rising in prominence in the world for the first time, all the while strengthening ties to Uncle Sam. The question is, will India finally rise to the occasion and take a seat at the Big Boys' table? Or will it find a way to squander this unprecedented chance?